3.4-3.5 Complements, Probability in Sampling

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Tip: OSH shells sea shells with proper PPE

Warmup
There are 2 red cards and 18 black cards.  If the goal is to keep guessing until you have found a red card:
a) What is the minimum number of guesses you might need to win?  What is the probability of this?
b) What is the maximum number of guesses you could make and still lose?  What is the probability of this?

Let's play as a class!  Each person gets 13 guesses.
1) Write down your guesses in advance (cards are numbered 1 through 20)
2) Everybody stands up
3) I will choose somebody standing to make one of their guesses
4) If their guessed card is red, then they and everybody else who guessed that card will sit down
5) Continue until everybody has won or made 13 guesses

How many people in a class of 30 would we expect to be left standing after 13 guesses?
Hint:

Announcements & Deadlines

Production Assignment 2 instructions and groups will be sent out this week (due Sun Mar 8)

Data Analysis Exam #1 in class Thu Feb 13

- Excel keys for Labs 0-4 are available on Moodle

Lab 4 Mobius questions due Fri Feb 14

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 3.4-3.5 Complements, Probability in Sampling

Notes on Moodle

Next Lab - Data Analysis Exam #1

• Arrive early!
• Review the prep sheet and other resources on Moodle
• It is open-book and you will have access to your own files on Moodle, but you should be organized so you know where to find things quickly.
• You may have your personal laptop open, but you must make your Excel file on the desktop computer in the lab.
• Save multiple copies of your file!