Injury rates

Comic of the Day

Tip: So what percent of the vote won't you get?

Deadlines

Chapter 3&4 assignment (Moodle) due Wed Mar 4

Theory Exam (Chapter 3&4) in class Wed Mar 4

Production Assignment 2 (due Sun Mar 8) instructions and groups have been sent out, rubric is posted on Moodle

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 4.1-4.3 Expected Value and Binomial Distribution

Rates allow us to compare populations better than just frequency
http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/fetal-deaths-rocketed-in-flint-following-lead-poisoning-of-water/

Notes on Moodle

Next Lecture - Lab 5 - Descriptive Statistics
Pre-read the lecture notes on Moodle

4.1-4.3 Expected Value and Binomial Distribution

Comic of the Day

Tip: Some components of group assignments should be done together, then assign individuals to finalize separate parts later.  Allow time to discuss/evaluate each group members contributions and make changes if necessary.

Warmup

1. Which of the two probabilities below would be easier to calculate? (Hint: Think if AND or OR would be required)
a) What is the probability that at least two people in our class of 30 students share a birthday? 
b) What is the probability that there are no shared birthdays?

2. What do we call the relationship between these probabilities?

3. Solve using Excel

Deadlines

Chapter 3&4 assignment (Moodle) due Wed Mar 4

Theory Exam (Chapter 3&4) in class Wed Mar 4

Production Assignment 2 (due Sun Mar 8) instructions and groups have been sent out, rubric is posted on Moodle

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 4.1-4.3 Expected Value and Binomial Distribution

Plinko

a) If the token is always dropped in the middle, do all of the outcomes (prize values) have an equal likelihood?

b) What would happen if the Plinko board wasn't perfectly level (i.e. it was tilted slightly sideways)?

Simulator - Set rows = 26 and binary probability p = 0.10 to simulate a company with 26 employees and an injury rate of 10.0 (%).  How many injuries are possible?  How many injuries are expected?

Notes on Moodle

Next Lecture - Injury Rates
Pre-read the lecture notes on Moodle

3.4-3.5 Complements, Probability in Sampling

Comic of the Day

Tip: OSH shells sea shells with proper PPE

Warmup
There are 2 red cards and 18 black cards.  If the goal is to keep guessing until you have found a red card:
a) What is the minimum number of guesses you might need to win?  What is the probability of this?
b) What is the maximum number of guesses you could make and still lose?  What is the probability of this?

Let's play as a class!  Each person gets 13 guesses.
1) Write down your guesses in advance (cards are numbered 1 through 20)
2) Everybody stands up
3) I will choose somebody standing to make one of their guesses
4) If their guessed card is red, then they and everybody else who guessed that card will sit down
5) Continue until everybody has won or made 13 guesses

How many people in a class of 30 would we expect to be left standing after 13 guesses?
Hint:

Announcements & Deadlines

Production Assignment 2 instructions and groups will be sent out this week (due Sun Mar 8)

Data Analysis Exam #1 in class Thu Feb 13

- Excel keys for Labs 0-4 are available on Moodle

Lab 4 Mobius questions due Fri Feb 14

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 3.4-3.5 Complements, Probability in Sampling

Notes on Moodle

Next Lab - Data Analysis Exam #1

• Arrive early!
• Review the prep sheet and other resources on Moodle
• It is open-book and you will have access to your own files on Moodle, but you should be organized so you know where to find things quickly.
• You may have your personal laptop open, but you must make your Excel file on the desktop computer in the lab.
• Save multiple copies of your file!

3.3 Addition and Multiplication Rules, Risk Analysis

Comic of the Day

Tip: Always make the best of a baaaad situation

Warmup
Monty Hall Problem
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

Is it better to swap doors, keep the same door or does it matter? 

Hint: Draw a sample space, where the first event is your initial guess (car, goat or goat) and the second event is whether you swap or stay (win or lose).

Don't believe me?  Check out the empirical probability:
http://www.stayorswitch.com/

Still don't believe me?  Read this:

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/

Announcements & Deadlines
Production Assignment 2 instructions and groups will be sent out this week (due Sun Mar 8)
Data Analysis Exam #1 in class Thu Feb 13
- Excel keys for Labs 0-4 are available on Moodle
Lab 4 Mobius questions due Fri Feb 14
Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 3.3 Addition and Multiplication Rules
Notes on Moodle

Next Lecture - 3.4-3.5 Complements, Probability in Sampling

Pre-read notes on Moodle

Unit 1 Exam

µ=58.1%

σ=18.4%

median=60%

70.0% within ±1σ

If you want to ask about the marking of your exam I would be happy to discuss with you, but please wait 24 hours before emailing or asking me.  Take this time to review the answer key, lecture notes, assignments and sample exam from last year.  You can review your Chapter 1 and 2 Mobius assignments using the Mobius Gradebook link at the top of Moodle.

Lab 4 - Relative Standing and Boxplots

Comic of the Day

Tip: Get pumped up about boxplots

Data Analysis Exam #1 (Thu Feb 13)
Covers Labs 0-4
See the "Excel Midterm Exam Prep Sheet", "Old Excel Midterm Exam Files" and "Old Excel Midterm Exam Walkthough"

• It is open-book and you will have access to your own files and the keys to the labs on Moodle, but you should be organized so you know where to find things quickly.

Deadlines
Read article on Moodle "What are the Odds?  The Probability of an Accident"
Lab 3 Mobius questions due Fri Feb 7
Production Assignment 1 assessments (inter-group and intra-group) due Sun Feb 9
Data Analysis Exam #1 in class Thu Feb 13
Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - Lab 4 - Relative Standing and Boxplots

Instructions on Moodle

Next Lecture - 3.3 Addition and Multiplication Rules, Risk Analysis

Pre-read §3.3 in the textbook

3.1-3.2 Basic Concepts of Probability

Comic of the Day

Tip: Ignorance can be bliss, but statistically it's still a bad choice

Deadlines
Lab 3 Mobius questions due Fri Feb 7
Production Assignment 1 assessments (inter-group and intra-group) due Sun Feb 9
Data Analysis Exam #1 in class Thu Feb 13
Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 3.1-3.2 Basic Concepts of Probability
Mathematicians of Catan

a) When rolling one dice, what are all the possibilities?  Are they each equally likely?
b) When rolling two dice, what are all the possibilities?  Are they each equally likely?
c) When you SUM the rolls on two dice, what are all the possibilities?  Are they each equally likely?
(Show with a table in Excel and conditional formatting)

Notes on Moodle

Next Lecture - Lab 4 - Relative Standing and Boxplots

Preview the video tutorial