Visualizations, Linear Regression and Correlation

Comic of the Day

Tip: Beware the temptation of the procrastination side

Announcements and Deadlines

Labs 6, 7, 8 and 10 due Thu Apr 16
Excel Final Exam on Thu Apr 16
Chapter 6-8 and Visualizations/Chapter 12 assignments (Moodle) due Thu Apr 23

Theory Exam (Chapter 6-8) is combined with Chapter 12 exam and will be on Thu Apr 23

This Week

1. Visualizations

To supplement the lecture notes, read the excerpts from Tufte's "Visual Display of Quantitative Information", the article "Charting Safety Performance" from the American Society of Safety Professionals, and "Leading Indicators for Workplace Health and Safety" from Work Safe Alberta.

2. Linear Regression

Tip: Some relationships are linear, some can't be explained...

Guess the regression line!
https://www.geogebra.org/m/JsFmFEg6

3. Correlation

Spurious Correlations
Have too much time on your hands?  Try this!
http://guessthecorrelation.com/
Notes on Moodle

For More Information

Regression

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/regression/regression-correlation/e/plotting_the_line_of_best_fit

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/regression/regression-correlation/e/linear-models-of-bivariate-data

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/regression/regression-correlation/v/r-squared-or-coefficient-of-determination

Correlation
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/regression/regression-correlation/v/correlation-and-causality
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/regression/regression-correlation/e/linear-models-of-bivariate-data

Next Week - Exams

Look at Exam Prep Sheet and other study resources

Sampling Distributions, Central Limit Theorem and Confidence Intervals

Comic of the Day

Tip: The things themselves are all right, so who cares?

Announcements and Deadlines

Labs 6, 7, 8 and 10 due Thu Apr 16
Excel Final Exam on Thu Apr 16
Chapter 6-8 assignment (Moodle) due Thu Apr 23

Theory Exam (Chapter 6-8) is combined with Chapter 12 exam and will be on Thu Apr 23

This Week

1. Sampling Distributions and Central Limit Theorem

Central Limit Theorem Simulator

http://onlinestatbook.com/stat_sim/sampling_dist/

Set n=25 and run the simulator several hundred thousand times. 

For any population distribution (normal, uniform, skewed, custom), the distribution of the sample mean, x̄, is normally distributed with the following properties:

the mean of the sample means approaches the population mean

the standard deviation of the sample means is less than the population standard deviation (it actually follows the formula below)

Lab 8 - Sampling Distributions
Lab 8 shows how a sample mean, x̄ (n=16 or 100) is usually close to a population mean, µ (N=10,000), and gets closer as n increases.  You will use a VLOOKUP function to randomly sample from your payroll data.

3. Confidence Intervals

"A Mainstreet Technologies poll ... suggests Albertans are highly resistant to any tax hikes. Only 15 per cent of survey respondents say they’d favour increased taxes. Spending cuts are the preferred solution of 43 per cent."

"...automated phone survey of 3,184 Albertans."

"The Mainstreet Technologies survey is considered accurate within plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20."

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/alberta-sales-tax-the-most-detested-budget-solution-poll-says

Confidence Interval for Population Proportion, p

https://www.geogebra.org/m/kh7ndb2N

Confidence Interval for Population Mean, µ (σ known)

https://www.geogebra.org/m/NuypFzw9

Confidence Interval for Population Mean (σ unknown)

https://www.geogebra.org/m/HdXrD6Tw

For More Information

Sampling distribution
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/sampling_distribution/v/sampling-distribution-of-the-sample-mean
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/sampling_distribution/v/sampling-distribution-of-the-sample-mean-2
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/sampling_distribution/v/standard-error-of-the-mean
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/sampling_distribution/v/sampling-distribution-example-problem

Confidence Intervals (videos go beyond the content of this course)

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/confidence-intervals/v/confidence-interval-1
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/confidence-intervals/v/confidence-interval-example

Confidence Intervals (small sample size)

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/confidence-intervals/v/small-sample-size-confidence-intervals

Next Week - Linear Equations and Graphs, Lab 10 - Linear Regression

Pre-read notes on Moodle

Lab 7 - Normal Distributions

Comic of the Day

Tip: We might all be a little out of practice, so go easy on us?

Announcements and Deadlines

Production Assignment 2 assessments and peer/self evaluation due Sun Mar 22

Chapter 6-8 assignment (Moodle) due Mon Mar 30

Theory Exam (Chapter 6-8) postponed until further notice

This Week - Lab 7 - Normal Distribution

Lab instruction video on Moodle
Mobius questions

For More Information

Normal distribution

http://patrickjmt.com/the-normal-distribution-and-the-68-95-99-7-rule/
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/normal_distribution/e/z_scores_1

Next Week - Lab 8 - Sampling Distributions

Lab instruction video and Mobius questions are already posted

Lab 6 - Probability

Comic of the Day

Tip: Watch your syntax when using the =FRIENDIF() function

Applications of Visualizations

Dashboard

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Understand statistics, don't BE a statistic

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html

Prevention

https://www.albertahealthservices.ca/

To help protect you and your family against all respiratory illnesses, including flu and COVID-19, you should:

• Wash your hands often and well
• Avoid touching your face, nose, or mouth with unwashed hands.
• Avoid close contact with people who are sick
• Clean and disinfect surfaces that are frequently touched
• Stay at home and away from others if you are feeling ill
• Contact your primary health provider or Health Link 811 if you have questions or concerns about your health
• When sick, cover your cough and sneezes and then wash your hands

Announcements and Deadlines

Production Assignment 2 assessments and peer/self evaluation due Sun Mar 15

Chapter 6-8 assignment (Moodle) due Mon Mar 30

Theory Exam (Chapter 6-8) in class Mon Mar 30

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - Lab 6 - Probability

See videos on Moodle
Activity 1 is related to injury rates in your individual data sets
In Activity 2 you will create a binomial probability distribution related to injury rates, and then also create a model for workplace injuries using random number generation in Excel.  Excel's built-in Binomial Distribution function with the following syntax:
BINOM.DIST(x,n,p,false)

Next Lecture - 7.1-7.3 Sampling Distributions and Central Limit Theorem
Pre-read 7.1-7.3 in the textbook
Watch this 10:41 primer video on the Central Limit Theorem
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/ap-statistics/sampling-distribution-ap/sampling-distribution-mean/v/sampling-distribution-of-the-sample-mean

6.2 Applications of Normal Distributions

Comic of the Day

Tip: Always make the diagram match one on our z table

Unit 2 Exam (out of 25 marks)

µ=64.3%
σ=20.5%
median=66%
60% within µ±1σ

Unit 1 Exam (was changed to out of 25 marks instead of 30)

µ=58.1% 69.7%

σ=18.4% 22.1%

median=60% 72%

70.0% within µ±1σ

For students who scored 100% on Mobius chapter 1-4 assignments:
µ=75.8% on Unit 1&2 Exams

For students who scored <100% on Mobius chapter 1-4 assignments:
µ=51.8% on Unit 1&2 Exams

Announcements and Deadlines

Production Assignment 2 assessments and peer/self evaluation due Sun Mar 15

Chapter 6-8 assignment (Moodle) due Mon Mar 30

Theory Exam (Chapter 6-8) in class Mon Mar 30

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 6.2 Applications of Normal Distributions

Notes on Moodle

z-score calculator

https://www.geogebra.org/m/zeF3hkXf

For More Information

Normal distribution

http://patrickjmt.com/the-normal-distribution-and-the-68-95-99-7-rule/
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/normal_distribution/e/z_scores_1

Next Lecture - Lab 6 - Probability
Watch the video tutorial and try it on your own

6.1 Standard Normal Distribution

Comic of the Day

Tip: It's not that scary if you practice

Explanation of Grading for Production Assignment 1

Submission Grade (ave 29.9/40) - instructor graded

Individual Contribution (ave 8.9/10) - based on the Peer and Self Evaluation ratings, comments, and my observations

Assessment Grade (ave 8.0*/10) - based on how close you graded the group versus how I graded the group, and also on the quality of your comments (specific and insightful)

* students who did not assess other groups were assigned a grade of zero and were not included in this average

Announcements and Deadlines

Production Assignment 2 assessments and peer/self evaluation due Sun Mar 15

Chapter 6-8 assignment (Moodle) due Mon Mar 30

Theory Exam (Chapter 6-8) in class Mon Mar 30

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 6.1 Standard Normal Distribution

Notes on Moodle

z-score calculator

https://www.geogebra.org/m/zeF3hkXf

For More Information

Normal distribution

http://patrickjmt.com/the-normal-distribution-and-the-68-95-99-7-rule/

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/statistics-inferential/normal_distribution/e/z_scores_1

Next Lecture - 6.2 Applications of Normal Distributions

Pre-read notes on Moodle

Feedback from PA1

Feedback from PA1
- read the rubric carefully and make sure you are meeting all the criteria (e.g. whether it's a table or a chart, what the rows/columns should be, how much/little information to include, what Excel functions/features should be enabled like a Filter)
- who is your intended audience?  An email to a front line supervisor should be short and to the point.  For PA2, a briefing report for senior management should have a little more substance but be careful not to include redundant sentences just to "flower things up"
- the analysis has to be correct!  In PA1 you needed to correctly count the number of employees in each category (never trained, expired, will expire and by each training type).  For PA2 you will need to use correct data for all of your charts.

Suggestions for PA2
- double-check that you haven't missed any data or counted anything twice
- each chart should have a clear message and a reason why you have included it
- three mandatory charts (raw data, histogram, ogive)
- two or more additional charts (e.g. pie, stacked column, boxplot) that focus on overexposures, other contributing factors or changes over time
- do not include your names anywhere.  If you need a name you are Saif T. Guy.  In the workplace you will have to be careful not to violate employee privacy and accidentally include their name on an injury report!

Remember:
Under no circumstances should you be sharing your files (including the raw data files) with other groups, and under no circumstances should you open files from other groups.

Injury rates

Comic of the Day

Tip: So what percent of the vote won't you get?

Deadlines

Chapter 3&4 assignment (Moodle) due Wed Mar 4

Theory Exam (Chapter 3&4) in class Wed Mar 4

Production Assignment 2 (due Sun Mar 8) instructions and groups have been sent out, rubric is posted on Moodle

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 4.1-4.3 Expected Value and Binomial Distribution

Rates allow us to compare populations better than just frequency
http://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/fetal-deaths-rocketed-in-flint-following-lead-poisoning-of-water/

Notes on Moodle

Next Lecture - Lab 5 - Descriptive Statistics
Pre-read the lecture notes on Moodle

4.1-4.3 Expected Value and Binomial Distribution

Comic of the Day

Tip: Some components of group assignments should be done together, then assign individuals to finalize separate parts later.  Allow time to discuss/evaluate each group members contributions and make changes if necessary.

Warmup

1. Which of the two probabilities below would be easier to calculate? (Hint: Think if AND or OR would be required)
a) What is the probability that at least two people in our class of 30 students share a birthday? 
b) What is the probability that there are no shared birthdays?

2. What do we call the relationship between these probabilities?

3. Solve using Excel

Deadlines

Chapter 3&4 assignment (Moodle) due Wed Mar 4

Theory Exam (Chapter 3&4) in class Wed Mar 4

Production Assignment 2 (due Sun Mar 8) instructions and groups have been sent out, rubric is posted on Moodle

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 4.1-4.3 Expected Value and Binomial Distribution

Plinko

a) If the token is always dropped in the middle, do all of the outcomes (prize values) have an equal likelihood?

b) What would happen if the Plinko board wasn't perfectly level (i.e. it was tilted slightly sideways)?

Simulator - Set rows = 26 and binary probability p = 0.10 to simulate a company with 26 employees and an injury rate of 10.0 (%).  How many injuries are possible?  How many injuries are expected?

Notes on Moodle

Next Lecture - Injury Rates
Pre-read the lecture notes on Moodle

3.4-3.5 Complements, Probability in Sampling

Comic of the Day

Tip: OSH shells sea shells with proper PPE

Warmup
There are 2 red cards and 18 black cards.  If the goal is to keep guessing until you have found a red card:
a) What is the minimum number of guesses you might need to win?  What is the probability of this?
b) What is the maximum number of guesses you could make and still lose?  What is the probability of this?

Let's play as a class!  Each person gets 13 guesses.
1) Write down your guesses in advance (cards are numbered 1 through 20)
2) Everybody stands up
3) I will choose somebody standing to make one of their guesses
4) If their guessed card is red, then they and everybody else who guessed that card will sit down
5) Continue until everybody has won or made 13 guesses

How many people in a class of 30 would we expect to be left standing after 13 guesses?
Hint:

Announcements & Deadlines

Production Assignment 2 instructions and groups will be sent out this week (due Sun Mar 8)

Data Analysis Exam #1 in class Thu Feb 13

- Excel keys for Labs 0-4 are available on Moodle

Lab 4 Mobius questions due Fri Feb 14

Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 3.4-3.5 Complements, Probability in Sampling

Notes on Moodle

Next Lab - Data Analysis Exam #1

• Arrive early!
• Review the prep sheet and other resources on Moodle
• It is open-book and you will have access to your own files on Moodle, but you should be organized so you know where to find things quickly.
• You may have your personal laptop open, but you must make your Excel file on the desktop computer in the lab.
• Save multiple copies of your file!

3.3 Addition and Multiplication Rules, Risk Analysis

Comic of the Day

Tip: Always make the best of a baaaad situation

Warmup
Monty Hall Problem
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg

Is it better to swap doors, keep the same door or does it matter? 

Hint: Draw a sample space, where the first event is your initial guess (car, goat or goat) and the second event is whether you swap or stay (win or lose).

Don't believe me?  Check out the empirical probability:
http://www.stayorswitch.com/

Still don't believe me?  Read this:

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-monty-hall-problem/

Announcements & Deadlines
Production Assignment 2 instructions and groups will be sent out this week (due Sun Mar 8)
Data Analysis Exam #1 in class Thu Feb 13
- Excel keys for Labs 0-4 are available on Moodle
Lab 4 Mobius questions due Fri Feb 14
Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 3.3 Addition and Multiplication Rules
Notes on Moodle

Next Lecture - 3.4-3.5 Complements, Probability in Sampling

Pre-read notes on Moodle

Unit 1 Exam

µ=58.1%

σ=18.4%

median=60%

70.0% within ±1σ

If you want to ask about the marking of your exam I would be happy to discuss with you, but please wait 24 hours before emailing or asking me.  Take this time to review the answer key, lecture notes, assignments and sample exam from last year.  You can review your Chapter 1 and 2 Mobius assignments using the Mobius Gradebook link at the top of Moodle.

Lab 4 - Relative Standing and Boxplots

Comic of the Day

Tip: Get pumped up about boxplots

Data Analysis Exam #1 (Thu Feb 13)
Covers Labs 0-4
See the "Excel Midterm Exam Prep Sheet", "Old Excel Midterm Exam Files" and "Old Excel Midterm Exam Walkthough"

• It is open-book and you will have access to your own files and the keys to the labs on Moodle, but you should be organized so you know where to find things quickly.

Deadlines
Read article on Moodle "What are the Odds?  The Probability of an Accident"
Lab 3 Mobius questions due Fri Feb 7
Production Assignment 1 assessments (inter-group and intra-group) due Sun Feb 9
Data Analysis Exam #1 in class Thu Feb 13
Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - Lab 4 - Relative Standing and Boxplots

Instructions on Moodle

Next Lecture - 3.3 Addition and Multiplication Rules, Risk Analysis

Pre-read §3.3 in the textbook

3.1-3.2 Basic Concepts of Probability

Comic of the Day

Tip: Ignorance can be bliss, but statistically it's still a bad choice

Deadlines
Lab 3 Mobius questions due Fri Feb 7
Production Assignment 1 assessments (inter-group and intra-group) due Sun Feb 9
Data Analysis Exam #1 in class Thu Feb 13
Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 3.1-3.2 Basic Concepts of Probability
Mathematicians of Catan

a) When rolling one dice, what are all the possibilities?  Are they each equally likely?
b) When rolling two dice, what are all the possibilities?  Are they each equally likely?
c) When you SUM the rolls on two dice, what are all the possibilities?  Are they each equally likely?
(Show with a table in Excel and conditional formatting)

Notes on Moodle

Next Lecture - Lab 4 - Relative Standing and Boxplots

Preview the video tutorial

2.7 Measures of Variation

Comic of the Day

Tip: If at first you don't succeed, fudge the data

Deadlines & Announcements
Lab 2 Mobius questions due Fri Jan 31
Production Assignment 1 due Sun Feb 2 (will need to submit draft to WriteOn several days in advance)
Chapter 1&2 assignments (Moodle) due Mon Feb 3
Watch your rounding for the assignments.  Keep extra decimals for intermediate answers, then round your final answer only.
Theory Exam (Chapter 1&2) in class Mon Feb 3
Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 2.7 Measures of Variation

Notes on Moodle

Standard deviation using a dotplot

https://www.geogebra.org/m/SrkEMH7m

Next Lab - Lab 3 - Charts and PivotTables

Watch the video tutorial and refer to the sample pdf

2.5-2.6 Measures of Central Tendency

Comic of the Day

Tip: Laughter is the best medicine.  It makes the math hurt less.

Canadian music to study to
Tom Cochrane - "median"
Tragically Hip - "meridian"


Deadlines & Announcements
Lab 2 Mobius questions due Fri Jan 31
Production Assignment 1 due Sun Feb 2 (will need to submit draft to WriteOn several days in advance)
Chapter 1&2 assignments (Moodle) due Mon Feb 3
Watch your rounding for the assignments.  Keep extra decimals for intermediate answers, then round your final answer only.
Theory Exam (Chapter 1&2) in class Mon Feb 3
Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - 2.5-2.6 Measures of Central Tendency

Notes on Moodle

How are mean, median, and mode affected by an outlier?

http://www.geogebratube.org/student/m35325

Remember: A meridian is a line on a map, not a statistical term or what you crash your car into!

Next Lecture - 2.7 Measures of Variation
Pre-read §2.7
Practice this online activity to calculate standard deviation
https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/data-distributions-a1/summarizing-spread-distributions/a/calculating-standard-deviation-step-by-step

Lab 2 - Frequency Distribution and Histograms

Comic of the Day

Tip: Always label your axes.

Warmup
Fill in the blanks with the words FUNCTION or FORMULA
A __________ uses mathematical operators to calculate a value
A __________ is built in and has a specific syntax for its inputs
An example of a __________ is "=SUM(A1:A5)"
An example of a __________ is "=A1+A2+A3+A4+A5"
Avoid "=SUM(A1+A2+A3+A4+A5)"

Deadlines & Announcements
Lab 1 Mobius questions due Fri Jan 24
Production Assignment 1 due Sun Feb 2 (will need to submit draft to WriteOn several days in advance)
Chapter 1&2 assignments (Moodle) due Mon Feb 3
Watch your rounding for the assignments.  Keep extra decimals for intermediate answers, then round your final answer only.
Theory Exam (Chapter 1&2) in class Mon Feb 3
Drop-in tutorials will run every Tue 12-12:50 in CAT286 (computer lab)

Today - Lab 2 - Frequency Distribution and Histograms
Video tutorial and Mobius questions on Moodle
Check your email for other data files from me

Tips:

• Formulas or functions always start with =
• Press Enter to accept a formula, or Esc to exit without saving changes
• Start typing =COU in the formula bar in Excel and it will give you a choice of which function to use (e.g. COUNT, COUNTA, COUNTIF...) then the syntax for that function

Next Lecture - 2.5-2.6 Measures of Central Tendency

Pre-read §2.5-2.6
Watch this 3:54 primer video on mean, median and mode

https://www.khanacademy.org/math/probability/data-distributions-a1/summarizing-center-distributions/v/mean-median-and-mode